IC united shipments in Q2 of this year began outpacing the long-term trend line, and they may trigger an inventory adjustment in the near future, market researcher IC Insights said today.
Over the past ten years, IC unit shipments have registered a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 9 percent. But unit shipments began outpacing that trend line in Q2, reaching some 30 billion units, and IC Insights predicts that IC unit shipments will be nearly 10 percent above t
hat trend in Q3, before falling back toward the trend line in Q4, and below it in early 2006.
There does not appear to be a precise percentage figure that defines excess IC unit volume levels that cause an inventory adjustment, the market researcher acknowledged. But a significant plus-side departure of 10 percent or more of quarterly IC unit volume shipments from the trend line, coinciding with a slowing of growth – but not necessarily a decline -- in one or more major electronic system categories, such as PCs or cell phones, often serve as triggers for an inventory adjustment, IC Insights said.
The market researcher plans to discuss the topic more in depth at its second annual Fall IC Industry Forum next week in Sunnyvale, Calif.
来源:半导体国际 作者: 时间:2005/9/19 0:00:00
